Divorce in Vietnam: Preliminary Results of a Survey in Hanoi, Khanh Hoa and Tien Giang


Vu Manh Loi

Tran Nguyet Minh Thu

Hoang Van Dung

Abstract: Divorce appears to increase rapidly as the process of modernization intensi- fies in Viet Nam during the Reform period known as Doi Moi. Available data from censuses and national representative surveys provide little knowledge about divorce prevalence, much less about its determinants. Statistics from marriage and family court cases highlight the sharp increase in divorce cases over time, but these statistics are of little use in under- standing the causes of divorce. Small scale studies of divorce in Viet Nam are limited in number, scope and analysis methodology. Re-analyzing the data from Viet Nam Family Sur- vey 2006 and using data from Divorce Survey 2017 conducted in Hanoi, Khanh Hoa, and Tien Giang, the authors present results of survival analysis and event history analysis of di- vorce and its drivers, testing the key theses of modernization theory. In general, the key theses of modernization theory are supported by the data. However, there are aspects that do not fit well with modernization theory, reflecting the complexity of divorce in the context of the transitional period of Vietnamese society today.

Keywords: family, marriage, divorce, modernization, Viet Nam